Accumulate and then hit 3500 soonPlan XAU next week: 16 June - 20 June 2025
Related Information:
Recently, US President Trump told Axios that Israel’s attack could help him reach an agreement with Iran. He urged Iran to make a deal, adding, 'There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to bring this slaughter to an end, with the next planned attacks expected to be even more brutal.'
The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment report for June showed that households are becoming more optimistic about the economy. The Sentiment Index increased from 52.2 to 60.5, while inflation expectations declined for both the one-year and five-year outlooks—from 6.6% to 5.1%, and from 4.2% to 4.1%, respectively.
personal opinion:
Gold prices will tend to accumulate at the beginning of the week around 3400, news of Middle East tensions will push gold prices back to 3500 by the middle of next week.
Important price zone to consider :
sell point: 3500, 3536
buy point: 3410, 3376
Sustainable trading to beat the market
XAUUSD trade ideas
Long Trade idea on XAUUSD(15m)In this setup, I took a long position based on a confluence of technical factors and pure price action principles:
1. Trendline Breakout:
A well-respected descending trendline was broken with strong bullish momentum. The breakout indicates a potential shift in market structure from bearish to bullish.
2. Higher Low Formation:
After the breakout, price formed a higher low instead of breaking the previous support, signaling that buyers are stepping in and defending the level.
3. Retest of Broken Trendline:
Price pulled back to retest the broken trendline, which acted as support. This successful retest offered a high-probability entry point.
4. Strong Bullish Candles at Entry:
Bullish candlestick formations confirmed buyer strength at the area of interest, further validating the long setup.
5. Positive Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Stop-loss was placed below the most recent structural low, while the take-profit targeted the next resistance level. This setup provided a favorable R:R ratio.
Gold 4 hour Elliot Wave AnalysisThe current state of the market shows that we are in Wave 3. This is currently at 1.618 of Wave 1 possibly making one alert to near the end of this. This is being confirmed by liquidity sweep on the 1 hour time frame at the top. We can enter Wave 4 which shows a 500 pip decline to near 3380 levels. Post this we will start Wave 5 which can take us to 3515 levels which will be Fibonacci extension of 1 of Wave 3. After this it is possible to see a big fall. Will update when we get there.
War Fear Driving Gold: Iran-Israel Conflict Fuels Breakout!Hello Evevryone, let's discuss about Gold today as it has officially broken out of its parallel (Neutral bullish) channel with a powerful candle backed by massive volume surge , confirming strong buying interest — likely driven by safe-haven demand amid the rising Iran-Israel conflict. The breakout above 3444–3410 zone indicates a potential trend continuation setup where price may now retest the breakout area before pushing higher.
This move isn’t just technical — it’s fundamentally supported by fear in global markets. Whenever war fears rise, investors rush towards Gold to hedge their capital. That’s exactly what this spike reflects.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
GOLD/USD Bullish Breakout Confirmation GOLD/USD Bullish Breakout Confirmation 🚀📈
📊 Technical Analysis Overview:
The chart illustrates a bullish breakout above a well-defined resistance zone around $3,390–$3,400. Price action has decisively closed above this resistance, suggesting strong bullish momentum.
🔍 Key Observations:
🟦 Support Zone:
Marked clearly between $3,250–$3,280, this level has held firm multiple times (highlighted with green arrows and orange circles), confirming buyer interest and market structure.
🟦 Resistance Turned Support:
The previous resistance zone around $3,390–$3,400 has now potentially turned into a new support. Price retesting this zone and holding would further validate the breakout.
📈 Future Projections:
The chart anticipates a retest-pullback-continuation scenario:
Pullback to new support 📉
Bullish continuation toward $3,460+ 🎯 if support holds.
✅ Bias:
Bullish as long as price remains above the $3,390 zone. Break and hold below would invalidate the bullish setup.
📌 Strategy Tip:
Look for confirmation on the lower timeframes (e.g., bullish engulfing or pin bar) on the retest before entering long.
Gold Trading Strategy for 10th June 2025📈 Gold Intraday Trading Strategy (XAU/USD)
Effective for short-term trades | Timeframe: 15-min & 1-hour
🟢 Buy Setup – Bullish Breakout
✅ Entry Condition: Buy only if a 15-minute candle closes above 3351.
📌 Confirmation: Wait for the close, not just a wick or spike.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: 3362
Target 2: 3373
Target 3: 3384
🛑 Suggested Stop Loss: Below 3338 (recent swing low or structure support)
🔴 Sell Setup – Bearish Breakdown
✅ Entry Condition: Sell only if a 1-hour candle closes below 3319.
📌 Confirmation: Ensure candle body closes clearly below this level.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: 3305
Target 2: 3293
Target 3: 3281
🛑 Suggested Stop Loss: Above 3330 (recent swing high or resistance)
⚠️ Important Notes
Use proper risk management – Do not risk more than 1–2% of your capital per trade.
Confirm entry with volume, candlestick confirmation, or supporting technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD, trendline breaks).
Avoid trading during high-impact news events unless you're experienced.
📜 Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in gold or any financial market involves substantial risk, and you may lose your capital. Always do your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (June 12, 2025)📊 Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (June 12, 2025)
🌀 Wave Structure
According to yesterday's plan, the green abc corrective wave likely completed around the 3293 level. The subsequent bullish move is considered Wave 1 in a triangle form, and last night’s news helped Wave 5 hit the target, yielding over 200 pips in profit.
After that, price corrected in a black abc structure. Although the CPI release printed a sharp H1 wick (alongside overlapping waves supporting sellers), the price reversed sharply to the upside — further reinforcing the idea that the correction phase has ended.
Currently, price is testing the previous green Wave b high at 3375.954. A break and close above this level could strengthen the bullish wave scenario. If Wave 1 is indeed a triangle, Wave 3 may extend strongly, with a potential upside target near 3428.
In the short term, price may be forming Wave 1 within Wave 3, and we are watching two key zones:
3358 – 3355
3390 – 3393
⚠️ If price breaks and closes below 3350, the current wave count will be invalidated, and we will shift to a deeper corrective scenario. I will update accordingly to avoid confusion.
🔍 Momentum Outlook
D1: Momentum is rising, supporting the continuation of Wave 3 into next week.
H4: Still bullish; needs 1–2 more candles to reach the overbought zone.
H1: Currently overbought → possible pullback if price hits the 3390–3393 resistance.
⏱️ Bearish momentum reversal at 3390–3393 → confluence zone for a SELL setup
⏱️ Bullish momentum reversal at 3358–3355 → confluence zone for a BUY setup
🎯 Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 3358 – 3355
SL: 3348
TP1: 3375 | TP2: 3389
SELL ZONE: 3390 – 3393
SL: 3404
TP1: 3375 | TP2: 3358
Gold Bulls Eye Breakout: Cup & Handle Signals 3400+ Rally Incomi🔍 Bullish Confirmation Checklist:
✅ Cup & Handle Formation – Textbook structure with bullish momentum.
✅ Higher Lows (Price Action) – Sign of accumulation beneath resistance.
✅ No Bearish Divergence on RSI (15m/1H) – Momentum confirms move.
✅ Breakout Candle with Follow-through Needed – Awaiting 1H closing above $3349 for strong confirmation.
✅ Target Projection Logic:
Using Cup & Handle breakout range logic:
Cup depth ≈ $40 →
Projected Move = $3349 + $40 = $3389–$3400+
🛠️ Trading Outlook (for education):
Aggressive Entry: On breakout above $3349 with volume confirmation.
Safer Entry: Retest near $3341–$3344 zone with bullish candle.
Stoploss: Below $3333.36
Targets: $3375 > $3394 > $3404 > $3418 (Step-by-step)
🔔 Conclusion:
Gold is showing textbook bullish continuation with a Cup and Handle pattern triggering breakout above $3341–$3349 zone. Momentum is building, and bulls are eyeing higher Fibonacci cluster zones near $3394–$3418. This structure remains valid as long as price holds above $3333.
GOLD: Further levels using Elliott Wave TheoryWe successfully forecasted the path of gold in our post on May 12th.
Now, GOLD is looking like it's entering an impulse wave.
Wave (1) of this impulse was completed on 23rd May. The price then falls between the zone 38.2% and 50% to form wave (2). This was also predicted by us.
Currently, GOLD is in wave (3).
Now, to get the targets of wave (3), we have two possibilities.
1. Wave (3) goes to 100% and then reverses. This case is of the Terminal impulse. And the further path of GOLD can be predicted later.
2. Wave (3) goes to 161.8% (minimum). This is the case of Trending or normal impulse. And further path of GOLD can be predicted accordingly.
For now, GOLD is looking like going to touch at least the 100% (3490.81) level.
This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci.
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
This is not any buying recommendations.
GOLD IN SIDEWAY PHASE, WAITING FOR A BREAKOUT THROUGH KEY LEVELSXAU/USD TRADING PLAN 10/06/2025 – GOLD IN SIDEWAY PHASE, WAITING FOR A BREAKOUT THROUGH KEY LEVELS!
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Geopolitical tensions and monetary policy: The market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, with major decisions pending from important meetings, especially statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and global conflict situations. These factors could have a significant impact on market sentiment and volatility in gold.
Weak economic data from major economies such as the U.S. and the Eurozone indicates challenging economic conditions, leading investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset.
Interest rates: Although the Fed continues its rate hike policy, financial market uncertainties could continue to support gold as a preferred asset class.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the M30–H1 timeframe, XAU/USD is currently moving within a rising channel. After the correction in Wave 4, gold has bounced back in the 335x region and is now preparing to confirm the next trend. Signals from EMA indicate accumulation, potentially setting up for a strong rally ahead.
Key resistance levels: 3,338 – 3,345 (unexplored FVG region). If gold breaks above 3,345, a continued rise to 3,353 is highly likely.
Key support levels: 3,282 – 3,275. If gold retests these levels without breaking them, the chances of a rebound are strong.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY
🔵 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3,302 - 3,304
SL: 3,296
TP: 3,306 → 3,310 → 3,314 → 3,318 → 3,325
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3352 - 3354
SL: 3,358
TP: 3,348 → 3,344 → 3,340 → 3,330 → 3,320
⚠️ NOTE:
Risk management: Expect significant volatility as the market awaits important news this week.
Wait for confirmation: Technical signals are for guidance; clear confirmation from the charts is needed before entering trades.
📌 CONCLUSION:
Gold is currently in a sideway phase and may be preparing for a breakout if these key support and resistance levels are breached.
Traders should monitor both macroeconomic factors and strategic price zones to make informed trading decisions.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Day Trade Analysis – June 16, 2025Gold currently trades around $3,429 after rejecting from the $3,441 zone, which has now turned into a clear new resistance. The recent rally into this zone was driven by panic buying, not rooted in organic demand, as highlighted in the chart. This weak rally structure suggests limited sustainability unless new panic triggers emerge. The HVZ BASE (High-Volume Zone Base) near $3,380 will act as the critical support zone. If price revisits this zone and panic fades, we may see a bearish breakdown below it.
Three key intraday scenarios emerge:
A return to the HVZ base, followed by deeper downside continuation if the panic sentiment disappears.
A choppy range between $3,380–$3,441, with multiple whipsaws, trapping both longs and shorts.
A sharp spike above $3,441 only if panic resurges, pushing price toward the $3,460–$3,480 region quickly.
The dominant bias remains neutral to bearish unless a fresh wave of geopolitical panic reignites another vertical rally.
XAUUSD – Testing the Descending Trendline, Awaiting FOMC SignalsGold has rebounded to the 3,371 zone after U.S. CPI data showed cooling inflation, putting pressure on the USD. The price is now approaching the descending trendline and the 3,400 resistance zone – a level that marked the top on June 5.
If this area fails to break clearly, gold is likely to pull back toward the 3,327 support – the confluence of the EMA89 and a recent low. On the other hand, if the FOMC delivers a dovish signal, price could break out and aim for 3,457.
Trade Setup:
SELL near 3,400 if rejection candles appear
BUY near 3,327 if bullish reversal signals show
BUY breakout above 3,405 if FOMC supports further gains
Gold’s Tight Coil – Structure Tells the Story ! Gold continues to hover near the high-volume zone (HVZ) around the $3,370–$3,400 range, showing signs of hesitation. This HVZ remains a strong liquidity area where institutional orders might be sitting. Price has tested the upper edge multiple times, but with descending volume, indicating buyer exhaustion or lack of aggressive follow-through. As long as gold remains trapped below the top resistance zone ($3,432), the bullish momentum looks limited unless there’s a sudden macro trigger — such as geopolitical panic or inflation surprises — that spikes uncertainty and drives flight-to-safety buying.
On the downside, weak support sits around $3,323. If price loses that level convincingly, it could set up a sharp selloff targeting the lower pivot zone around $3,261.64. The rising trendline from May also looks threatened. A break below it confirms structural weakness and could invite aggressive shorting. Until then, gold may keep chopping within the tightening triangle. Expect quick intraday trades and sharp fakeouts unless supported by strong volume. Keep your eyes on whether gold can decisively break and hold above $3,400 — otherwise, it’s just noise within a distribution zone.
STRUCTURAL BEHAVIOR: BEARISH BIAS DOMINANT (Until Proven Otherwise)
1. Rising Wedge / Ascending Channel (Bearish Structure)
The structure from early May to June is forming a rising wedge or an ascending channel with lower volume — this is typically a bearish pattern.
Price keeps making higher lows, but struggles to make higher highs. That divergence is a red flag.
2. HVZ Rejections (Distribution Behavior)
Price gets repeatedly rejected in the 3370–3400 HVZ, suggesting supply absorption.
This resembles a distribution zone — strong sellers offloading while buyers get trapped.
3. Volume Profile – Descending Volume
Volume is declining while price remains within a tightening range — a classic exhaustion signal.
In bullish breakouts, you'd expect volume to rise as price pushes higher — that’s not happening here.
4. Support Weakening
The 3323 zone is getting tested multiple times, making it weaker.
The more a support is tested, the higher the chance it breaks.
5. False Breakout Possibility Above Triangle
If price breaks slightly above the wedge/triangle without volume, it's likely a fakeout — classic bull trap setup.
⚠️ HOWEVER: One Bullish Escape Route
If sudden uncertainty spikes (e.g., geopolitical crisis, bad economic data), gold might break 3432, and structure turns bullish.
That’s why the arrow saying IF SUDDEN UNCERTAINTY SPIKES is important — external news can invalidate price structure.
🔚 Verdict:
Bias: Bearish.
The structure, volume, and HVZ rejections suggest distribution and a potential breakdown ahead.
Invalidation: Clean breakout and hold above 3432 on high volume — then structure flips bullish.
Gold Surges Amid Middle East TensionsXAUUSD – Gold Surges Amid Middle East Tensions | What’s Next After 3430 Break?
🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Overview
Gold prices accelerated sharply in the Asian session on June 13 after Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities including the Natanz uranium enrichment site.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the mission would continue until the Iranian nuclear threat is “completely neutralized.”
Iran suffered major losses and scrambled its air force to prepare for retaliation.
WTI oil jumped over 8%, gold spiked to $3,430/oz, and US equities dropped sharply.
While the US claimed it would not participate directly in the attack, it vowed to defend its forces in the region if threatened.
This rapidly escalating geopolitical conflict has triggered a renewed flight into safe-haven assets, with gold leading the pack.
📉 Technical Outlook – M30 / H1 Chart
🔹 Trend Structure
Gold has broken out decisively above 3,392, forming a strong bullish leg and carving new short-term support around 3,412 – 3,426.
Price action is forming a Higher High – Higher Low structure within a rising channel.
🔹 Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A visible FVG between 3,405 – 3,412 has formed. As long as price holds above this zone, bullish continuation is favored.
🔹 EMA Structure
Price is well above all key EMAs (13, 34, 89, 200), confirming a strong bullish environment. EMA13 continues to guide intraday momentum.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone
Watch for potential distribution or profit-taking around 3,441 – 3,456 – a major resistance area if no further escalation occurs.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Behavior
Investor sentiment has shifted firmly into risk-off mode.
Funds are flowing heavily into gold, oil, CHF, and JPY.
Price volatility is likely to spike further, as headlines continue to drive intraday sentiment.
🎯 Updated Trade Setup – 13 June
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3384 – 3382
Stop-Loss: 3378
Take-Profit: 3388 → 3392 → 3396 → 3400 → 3405 → 3410
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3454 – 3456
Stop-Loss: 3460
Take-Profit: 3450 → 3446 → 3442 → 3438 → 3434 → 3430
✅ Conclusion
The renewed conflict between Israel and Iran is fueling gold’s rise as global risk appetite collapses. Technically, the trend remains bullish, but volatility is extremely elevated. Traders should watch key price zones closely and avoid emotional trades during event-driven spikes.
⚠️ Trade the reaction, not the prediction. Let key levels confirm bias before entering.
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact.
Gold holds firm as market shifts focus to global rate decisionsGold is currently trading around $3,438, maintaining its positive momentum as investors turn their attention from last week’s inflation data to a series of key interest rate decisions and policy guidance from major central banks.
The week begins with the Empire State Manufacturing Index – a crucial gauge of economic activity in New York. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is set to announce its monetary policy decision, and all eyes are on whether the BoJ will continue normalizing interest rates.
Next on the agenda is the U.S. retail sales data for May – a key indicator of consumer spending, which remains the backbone of the American economy. Any signs of weakening demand could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates in the coming months.
However, the main spotlight remains on the upcoming Fed meeting. While markets widely anticipate rates to remain unchanged, investors are eagerly awaiting signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the timing and roadmap for potential rate cuts ahead.
According to the latest Kitco gold survey, professional analysts remain bullish on gold’s outlook, although retail investors appear more cautious.
Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical risks continue to simmer – from rising domestic tensions in the U.S. to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and the ongoing trend of global de-dollarization. These factors collectively reinforce gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
With the Fed likely to hold rates steady for now, gold retains its defensive allure. In my view, the precious metal may soon reattempt the $3,500 level, as its role as a global safe haven becomes increasingly evident in the face of growing uncertainty.
Gold Drops After Asian FOMO: Bull Trap or Liquidity Grab?🟡 XAUUSD 16/06 – Gold Drops After Asian FOMO: Bull Trap or Liquidity Grab?
After a strong bullish rally in the Asian session driven by fear-based headlines and war news, gold (XAUUSD) suddenly reversed sharply — confusing many retail traders who jumped in late. But when we look deeper into price behavior and volume, the story becomes clearer...
📌 Key Fundamental Insights
🔸 Geopolitical headlines (war tensions, assassination attempts) triggered a FOMO rally in gold early in Asia.
🔸 However, the lack of follow-through volume suggests this may have been a bull trap—a smart money strategy to unload positions into emotional buying.
🔸 Big funds could be reallocating capital temporarily from gold into:
🔹 Stocks (tech & value sectors are correcting attractively)
🔹 Oil (Middle East tension = higher oil price = strong institutional interest)
🔍 Technical Outlook (M30 Chart)
The technical structure shows a textbook liquidity play:
🔻 Price spiked into resistance at 3456, then reversed
🧊 EMAs (13/34/89/200) are flattening → signs of potential bearish crossover on M15–M30
📉 Volume has been declining → confirms exhaustion of the FOMO move
📦 A large Fair Value Gap (FVG) sits below current price, acting as a magnet for liquidity
🎯 Strategy Setup
Scenario 1: BUY from FVG (Liquidity Reclaim)
Entry: 3383 – 3385
SL: 3377
TPs: 3386 → 3390 → 3394 → 3398 → 3402 → 3406 → 3410+
Structure favors a bounce from this zone if confirmed by price action during London or NY sessions.
Scenario 2: SELL if price re-tests 3456–3458
Entry: Only on clear rejection
SL: 3462
TPs: 3452 → 3448 → 3444 → 3440 → 3435 → 3430
⚠️ Avoid shorting blindly — only trade confirmed rejections with strong candle setups.
Market Psychology Right Now
Big players may be unloading gold to rotate into oil and equities
Asian FOMO = retail got trapped
Volume profile shows imbalance: market likely seeking liquidity lower before moving higher again
📝 Final Thoughts
Gold is in a volatile reaccumulation zone. Rather than chasing price, it’s better to let the market come to your planned zones. The 3383–3385 zone will be critical. If it holds, we may see a solid bounce into next week.
Discipline beats emotion. Respect your SL and stick to the zone logic.
📌 Follow for intraday updates. Will post re-entry plan during London session if price reacts early.
Gold emerges as the true safe havenThe conflict in the Middle East — especially following Israel’s surprise attack on Iran — has triggered notable turbulence across financial markets. Oil prices have spiked, and global stock markets have turned red, just as many anticipated. However, unlike previous crises, safe-haven flows have not poured into the U.S. dollar or Treasury bonds. Instead, capital has pivoted decisively toward gold.
In fact, U.S. Treasury yields have surged from 3.98% in April to around 4.42% currently. But this jump is not a sign of investor confidence — it reflects heightened risk premiums, as markets now demand greater returns for holding dollar-denominated assets amid growing uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, gold has reasserted itself as a “detached safe haven” — one that is immune to the political risks tied to fiat currency issuers.