Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis for the Week of Jue 16 -June 22~~ Technical Analysis ~~
-- Trend:
Short-Term: Bitcoin has broken the floor of a rising trend channel, suggesting a slower rise or potential sideways movement.
Medium/Long-Term: Despite the short-term slowdown, the long-term trend remains bullish, with Bitcoin testing resistance at ~$106,000–$110,000. A breakout above $111,000 could signal strong upward momentum.
Bearish Signals: Negative volume balance (higher volume on down days) and RSI divergence indicate potential for a short-term correction.
Key Levels:
Support: $102,400, $90,000
Resistance: $106,000–$110,000, with a critical zone at $110,000–$111,800. Breaking this could push BTC toward $125,000–$155,000.
-- Disclaimer --
This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
#Boost and comment will be highly appreciated
Wave Analysis
Learn institution Trading Part -3How Option Prices Move – The Greeks
Delta: Sensitivity to price change in the underlying
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta
Theta: Time decay – loss in value as expiry nears
Vega: Sensitivity to Implied Volatility (IV)
Rho: Interest rate sensitivity
Understanding Greeks helps manage risk, adjust positions, and time trades better.
4. Why Traders Choose Options
Leverage: Control large positions with limited capital
Risk Control: Limited loss in buying options
Flexibility: Multiple strategies (bullish, bearish, neutral)
Hedging: Protect existing stock portfolios
Income Generation: Through writing options like covered calls
Master class 9. Introduction to Option Trading
Options are powerful derivative instruments that give buyers the right (not obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific time. They are commonly used for hedging, speculation, and income strategies.
There are two basic types:
Call Options: Right to buy
Put Options: Right to sell
Options derive value from stocks, indices (Nifty, Bank Nifty), commodities, or currencies and are traded on platforms like NSE in India.
2. Key Terminology in Option Trading
Strike Price: Price at which the option can be exercised
Premium: Cost of buying the option
Expiry: Last day the option is valid
Lot Size: Fixed number of underlying units (e.g., 50 for Nifty)
Intrinsic Value: Real value of an option if exercised now
Time Value: Portion of premium linked to time left before expiry
ATM/ITM/OTM: At The Money, In The Money, Out of The Money – defines moneyness of options
Learn institutional Trading Part -5Option Buying vs Selling
Option Buyers
Pay premium
Unlimited profit, limited risk
Need strong directional movement
Option Sellers (Writers)
Receive premium
Limited profit, unlimited risk
Thrive in sideways or range-bound markets
Need deep knowledge of Greeks and risk management
6. Popular Option Trading Strategies
Beginner Strategies
Long Call/Put – Directional trades
Protective Put – Hedge stock losses
Covered Call – Generate income from holdings
Intermediate Strategies
Bull Call Spread – Buy and sell calls of different strikes
Bear Put Spread – Buy and sell puts
Straddle – Buy both call and put at same strike (high volatility)
Strangle – Buy OTM call and put (cheaper than straddle)
Advanced Strategies
Iron Condor – Neutral strategy with 4 legs
Butterfly Spread – Limited risk range strategy
Calendar Spread – Exploiting time decay differences
Ratio Spread – More contracts sold than bought
Advanced Technical Master classMulti-Timeframe Analysis involves analyzing multiple chart timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4H, 1H) to confirm trend direction and improve timing accuracy.
Application:
Identify long-term trend (Monthly/Weekly)
Use Daily/4H for entry signals
Filter noise with lower timeframes
Key Tools: Moving Averages, Trendlines, MACD
Module 2: Advanced Chart Patterns
Key Patterns Covered:
Harmonic Patterns (Gartley, Bat, Crab)
Elliott Waves (Impulse & Corrective Waves)
Wyckoff Method (Accumulation/Distribution Phases)
Practical Use:
Pattern + Volume = Strong Entry
Combine with Fib levels for reversal confirmation
Module 3: Volume Price Analysis (VPA)
Core Principle:
Volume precedes price. Learn to read volume spikes, absorption, and exhaustion.
Indicators to Use:
On Balance Volume (OBV)
Volume Profile
VWAP
VIPIND: Unlocking Potential After Downtrend
VIP Industries has demonstrated robust bullish momentum over the past few trading sessions, signaling a notable shift in market sentiment. This upward trajectory is particularly significant given the stock's prolonged downtrend since October 2024.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent price action suggests the potential completion of a corrective phase. The retracement from what appears to be Wave 1 to Wave 2 aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which often precedes the initiation of a strong Wave 3 impulse. This potential wave structure, if confirmed, could indicate further upside potential.
A key development supporting this bullish outlook is the stock's recent decisive close above its 200-day EMA, accompanied by a significant surge in trading volume. This confluence of price action and volume confirms strong buying interest and suggests a potential long-term trend reversal. The increased volume further validates the strength of the breakout, indicating broader market participation.
While the immediate outlook appears constructive, traders should be mindful of potential profit-taking around the ₹446 level. This area may present a temporary resistance zone where some short-term corrections or consolidation could occur. However, should the stock successfully navigate this level, the next significant upside resistance target to monitor is ₹492 . This level aligns with prior price highs and could represent a more substantial challenge for further upward movement.
For risk management purposes, a prudent approach would involve considering a stop-loss order positioned below the identified support zone, as depicted on the chart. This strategy aims to mitigate potential downside risk in the event of an unexpected reversal in market sentiment.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. It is based on observations from the provided chart and commonly used technical indicators. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own comprehensive due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
GOLD: Further levels using Elliott Wave TheoryWe successfully forecasted the path of gold in our post on May 12th.
Now, GOLD is looking like it's entering an impulse wave.
Wave (1) of this impulse was completed on 23rd May. The price then falls between the zone 38.2% and 50% to form wave (2). This was also predicted by us.
Currently, GOLD is in wave (3).
Now, to get the targets of wave (3), we have two possibilities.
1. Wave (3) goes to 100% and then reverses. This case is of the Terminal impulse. And the further path of GOLD can be predicted later.
2. Wave (3) goes to 161.8% (minimum). This is the case of Trending or normal impulse. And further path of GOLD can be predicted accordingly.
For now, GOLD is looking like going to touch at least the 100% (3490.81) level.
This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci.
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
This is not any buying recommendations.
From Breakdown to Breakout: A V-Shaped Surprise!This chart of Sterlite Technologies (W1) tells a compelling price action story:
📉 The stock initially consolidated at a demand zone, only to break down sharply, flipping that zone into a fresh supply area.
💥 What followed was a strong V-shaped recovery, accompanied by significant volume expansion.
🚀 The reclaimed supply zone was decisively taken out, leading price right into the Active Counter Trendline (CT).
🔁 This Active CT now stands as a key structure; the stock needs to form a higher low near the reclaimed demand zone for structural strength.
⚠️ Ahead, we have two higher-timeframe resistances in sight:
📏 An Inactive Weekly CT (dotted)
📡 The WTF 200 DEMA, a major trend filter
While this is not a call or forecast, the shift in structure, volume, and reclaiming of supply tells a story of possible trend transition — something worth keeping on the radar.
PERSISTENT SYSTEMPossibility of H&S pattern breakout in another IT company(persistent system). All IT companies are performing and Persistent is one of the best IT company. 6050-6100 is resistance level as per H&S pattern. Weekly and daily candles closing above this resistance will be confirmation of breakout. Keep this stock in watchlist
OIL INDIA LTD – Structure Tiring as Crude Starts Firing?What began as a heroic rally from ₹42 to ₹767 in a powerful impulse now finds itself wobbling under its own weight. OIL INDIA LTD’s chart tells a story of exhaustion — both structurally and contextually — just when crude oil is flexing again on the global stage.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions and war-like murmurs pushing crude prices higher, the Indian oil sector may be sailing into headwinds. And this isn’t just a macro hunch — the waves themselves are flashing caution.
After a Wave 1 climax near ₹767.90, price action has shifted into a corrective mode. I interpret the ongoing structure as a W-X-Y double zigzag , and within it, a key event unfolded: a classic ABC flat correction, beginning in March.
The April rally — which at first glance looks like a fresh impulse — is in fact the C leg of that flat. While it did unfold in 5 waves, the fifth wave formed an ending diagonal , complete with overlapping internals and fading momentum. This could be the last gasp .
Zooming into the 4H chart, the rise from ₹325 to ₹489 fits neatly into a corrective framework, not an impulsive one. That makes ₹489 a crucial invalidation level . If price stays below it, we likely begin Wave Y of the broader correction — a move that could push OIL INDIA back toward or even below ₹325.
However, if price breaches ₹489 and sustains, that’s your early signal that this entire bearish setup is off, and a new bullish sequence may be unfolding instead.
The stop-loss is tight, the downside wide. If this count holds, the risk-reward setup is highly favorable.
Further analysis continues in the notes below — covering multi-timeframe wave counts, internal structures, and confluences from RSI, volume, and Bollinger Bands.
Wave 3 Setup Building in TECH MAHINDRA?After completing Wave 4, TECHM has started a new impulsive structure. Wave was followed by a clear A-B-C flat correction, forming Wave near the demand zone. The recent breakout indicates the beginning of Wave 1 of a larger Wave 3.
Supporting signals:
Strong volume during impulsive rallies.
RSI is rising but not yet in the overbought zone, indicating room for further upside.
Price is currently near the previous supply zone around ₹1712. A retracement toward the 0.382–0.236 Fibonacci levels (₹1640–₹1665) is expected before a further move higher in Wave 3.
Important levels:
Resistance: ₹1712
Retracement support zone: ₹1640–₹1665
Stop loss / invalidation: ₹1535
The current structure remains valid as long as price holds above ₹1535.
Chart will be updated as price action evolves.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Gold emerges as the true safe havenThe conflict in the Middle East — especially following Israel’s surprise attack on Iran — has triggered notable turbulence across financial markets. Oil prices have spiked, and global stock markets have turned red, just as many anticipated. However, unlike previous crises, safe-haven flows have not poured into the U.S. dollar or Treasury bonds. Instead, capital has pivoted decisively toward gold.
In fact, U.S. Treasury yields have surged from 3.98% in April to around 4.42% currently. But this jump is not a sign of investor confidence — it reflects heightened risk premiums, as markets now demand greater returns for holding dollar-denominated assets amid growing uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, gold has reasserted itself as a “detached safe haven” — one that is immune to the political risks tied to fiat currency issuers.
VOLTAS techno-funda analysisVoltas Ltd. (NSE: VOLTAS) is currently trading at INR 1,313.60, reflecting a recent price consolidation. The company is a key player in the air conditioning and engineering services sector, with a strong presence in consumer electronics and infrastructure projects.
Key Levels
Support Levels: INR 995.65, INR 1,198.55, INR 1,326.15
Swing Level: INR 1,444.40
Possible Upside Levels: INR 1,881.35, INR 2,084.25, INR 2,342.70
Technical Indicators
RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50.89, indicating neutral momentum, suggesting neither strong buying nor selling pressure.
Volume: Trading volume is 14.66M, showing strong investor participation. Higher volume near resistance levels could validate bullish movements.
Sector and Market Context
Voltas Ltd. operates in the consumer durables and engineering projects sector, benefiting from seasonal demand for cooling solutions and ongoing infrastructure development. The industry has seen steady growth, supported by urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and government investments in smart cities and construction. However, raw material price fluctuations, competition from domestic and global brands, and macroeconomic factors could influence the stock’s performance. Investors continue to track consumer demand trends and real estate-driven appliance sales.
Latest News and Developments
Market Trends: Strong institutional interest in home appliance and engineering service stocks due to India’s focus on infrastructure expansion.
Analyst Ratings: Recent reports indicate positive long-term prospects, citing new product launches and partnerships for sustainable cooling solutions.
Quarterly Results: Voltas Ltd. reported stable revenue growth, backed by higher seasonal sales and operational efficiencies.
Dividend Update: The company has announced a dividend payout of ₹5 per share, reinforcing investor confidence in its financial strength.
Analysis Summary
Voltas Ltd. presents a stable technical setup, with RSI and volume suggesting neutral positioning with breakout potential. Sector trends remain favorable, supported by consumer-driven demand for cooling products and ongoing infrastructure projects, though macro risks such as input costs and competition should be monitored. Investors should track price action near resistance levels, industry-wide shifts, and upcoming earnings releases before making investment decisions.
Nifty EW Parrern Nifty completed the first impulse and is in corrective phase. it had made irregular flat correction which i am considering the internal abc of (b) of higher degree Bcand now making (c) of higher degree B, please see the labels on charts for easy understanding. we might again see a irregular flat and than the final C will start which can take nifty downwards to the Tgts as shown in the chart.
EASEMYTRIP LONGElliott Wave analysis shows the price pattern and the stock has completed waves (i), and (ii) in black circle. Currently, the stock is undergoing in impulse wave (iii) in black circle in a daily time frame.
Wave (iii) in black circle will go in five sub waves in blue colour.
Wave (i) in blue color will unfold in five sub-waves shown in red colour on the chart.
wave i and ii in red colour is completed and started for wave iii (red colour).
Wave levels of wave iii are shown on the chart.
A double bottom pattern is formed on the chart. (The double Bottom
pattern is a bullish reversal pattern).
A falling wedge pattern is also forming on the chart. (A falling wedge patternis a bullish reversal pattern
Level of Invalidation
The starting point of Wave (i) has been identified as the invalidation level at 10.80. Because as per wave rules Wave (ii) cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave (i). If the price falls below this level, it can indicate that the expected Elliott Wave pattern is not as it seems.
I am not a registered Sebi analyst. My research is being done only for academic interests.
Please speak with your financial advisor before trading or making any investments. I take no responsibility whatsoever for your gains or losses.
Regards
Dr Vineet
I Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD June 16, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H1 timeframe, price is forming a 5-wave structure (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) in green, with the market currently in wave 4.
Last Friday, after breaking above the 3444 high, price failed to continue toward 3482 and instead reversed lower. This behavior suggests that wave 4 is developing as a Flat correction in black abc structure.
👉 Based on this outlook, wave c is expected to complete around 3314, marking the end of wave 4 in green. From there, a bullish impulse is anticipated to complete wave 5.
🔎 Momentum Overview
D1 timeframe: Momentum is rising → indicating the dominant trend for early this week is likely bullish.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is declining → supporting the scenario that wave c of wave 4 may still have one more leg down.
H1 timeframe: Momentum is about to turn downward → suggesting a potential drop during the Asian session on Monday.
🚨 However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could trigger unexpected price spikes, especially during the Asian session.
📈 Trade Plan
Buy Zone: 3415 – 3412
Stop Loss: 3405
Take Profit 1: 3444
Take Profit 2: 3482
KOTAKBANK - 3rd of 5th is play - Expect fireworksCMP: 2090
TF: Hourly
Price retraced 61% of the recent impulse
Price is taking support at 200 period EMA on hourly
Breakout retest done
GAP fill done
My recent post on Kotak (Daily TF) is copied below
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
SJVN on 3 Rise method - Next impulse to move beyond 130 or more?TF: 144 Minutes
The stock is exhibiting 3 Rise method, which is also another form of wave 1.
Once the set up is complete (that is, wave 2 pullback at the end of the 3rd rise), we can expect a strong impulse move for the 3rd wave up.
Observations:
- Price has been making HH and HL structure after coming out of the falling channel
- Price has got rejected from the 200 DEMA and trading near 50 DEMA
- Price has been comfortably trading above the CLOUD and pulling back (and possibly retesting the cloud base again)
- decent volume activity whenever the price is around 95
- There is a GAP between 89-92, which could possibly be filled in this pullback..
- But, between 95 and 90, this script looks to offer a great LRHR set up as the next leg up (third wave) could take it 130 and beyond.
View becomes invalid if the price moves below 86.5
Daily chart is copied below for better understanding
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
Elliot Wave - Nifty recent up move and immediate trajectory Nifty completed WXYXY correction and formed a robust impulse wave, i.e. wave (i)
The first wave got completed as depicted in the chart.
As can be seen, third sub-wave extension clearly points to where the 5th sub-wave is likely to end (as explained in my previous post). Now wave (ii) is in the formation which is a corrective wave.
Considering that there is a bullish sentiment, nifty is unlikely to form a zigzag (which generally leads to larger price correction) and hence there is a good possibility the correction will be a flat structure which is a 3-3-5 structure.
Wave c of the first structure formed at 1:1.
Will be able to update where the correction is likely to end as the waves unfold.
Happy trading!!