Beyond Technical Analysis
NACL Industries – The Murugappa Effect in Motion?📌 Current Price: ₹182.90
🏢 Key Development:
✅ Acquired by the Murugappa Group — known for successful turnarounds (CG Power, Coromandel, Tube Investments). Market participants are watching closely for the next phase of transformation.
📊 Chart Observations (Latest Price Action)
NACL surged from ~₹145 to ₹185 in a few sessions after acquisition news.
Strong bullish structure forming: higher highs, higher lows.
The price is currently consolidating just below ₹185–₹190 — a critical resistance zone.
🛡 Support Levels:
₹176 (short-term support zone from recent retests)
₹165 (base of breakout)
₹152 (breakdown invalidation)
🔼 Resistance Levels:
₹190 (psychological and chart resistance)
₹205 (swing target from flagpole projection)
₹225 (long-term breakout target if momentum sustains)
🔮 15-Day Forecast
✅ Bullish Scenario (Probability: 80%)
If price breaks above ₹190 on strong volume:
🎯 Target 1: ₹205
🎯 Target 2: ₹225
🎯 Target 3: ₹240+ in case of follow-through rally
Why high probability?
The Murugappa group tends to drive long-term institutional interest, and the chart structure supports continuation.
❌ Bearish Scenario (Probability: 20%)
If price fails to hold ₹176:
🔻 Target 1: ₹165
🔻 Target 2: ₹152
However, unless the broader market turns weak, pullbacks may be shallow and used for re-entry by funds.
🧠 Trading Strategy
📈 Entry: Above ₹190 breakout (ideally on volume > 2× 10-day avg)
🛑 Stop Loss: ₹176
🔄 Re-entry: On dips toward ₹165–₹170 with price stabilization
📌 Why It Matters
The Murugappa Group is known for value unlocking and governance-led transformation. Their entry is often a prelude to multi-year structural stories. Charts often move before fundamentals become obvious.
💬 Do you believe NACL could be the next CG Power-style turnaround?
Share your view in the comments 👇
#NACLIndustries #MurugappaGroup #TurnaroundStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutStocks #MultibaggerPotential #TradingViewIndia #SwingTrading
BAJAJ FINANCE – Pre-Split/Bonus Rally in Motion?💼 BAJAJ FINANCE – Pre-Split/Bonus Rally in Motion?
📌 Current Price: ₹9331
📅 Corporate Events (Record/Ex-Date: 16 June 2025)
🔹 Stock Split: 1:2
🎁 Bonus Issue: 1:4
➡️ Post-event, 1 share becomes 10, drastically increasing liquidity.
🔍 Technical View – 15-Day Forecast
BAJAJ FINANCE has surged from ₹8800 to ₹9330+ ahead of the split/bonus, forming higher highs and higher lows. Strong volume buildup suggests accumulation before corporate action.
🧭 Key Levels:
🔼 Resistance: ₹9400–₹9450
🛡 Support: ₹9100–₹9200
A breakout above ₹9450 could invite sharp buying momentum, possibly testing ₹9650–₹9800 or even ₹10,000 before adjustment.
📈 Bullish Scenario (70% Probability):
🎯 Target 1: ₹9650
🎯 Target 2: ₹9800
🎯 Final Spike: ₹10,000+
🔔 Trigger: Price + volume breakout above ₹9450
🔒 Stop-loss: Below ₹9100
📉 Bearish Scenario (30% Probability):
Failure to hold ₹9100 may lead to
🔻 Support 1: ₹8900
🔻 Support 2: ₹8650
Caution: Post-event (17 June), price will reset around ₹1000 ± 5% due to split & bonus. Expect volatility and wide price swings.
🧠 Trading Plan:
📈 Position only above ₹9450 breakout with confirmation.
⚠️ Avoid trading on 17 June unless experienced with high-volatility gaps.
📉 Post-adjustment re-entry opportunity possible around ₹980–₹1020 zone.
💬 What do you think—Will Bajaj Finance touch ₹10K before the corporate event?
Is the smart money accumulating or preparing to exit?
Let’s discuss 👇
#BajajFinance #StockSplit #BonusShares #BreakoutWatch #SwingTrading #NSEStocks #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingViewIndia
GLENMARK: Strong Momentum Breakout – Can Bulls Hold Above ₹1675?GLENMARK has been on a strong upward trend over the past few sessions. After consolidating between ₹1620–₹1655, the stock has broken out convincingly and is now testing fresh highs near ₹1675.
🔍 Key Observations:
📈 Uptrend Intact: Higher highs and higher lows forming clearly.
🔄 Healthy Dips Bought: Notice the bounce off the ₹1610 zone (June 13) on volume.
🔥 Volume Expansion: Noticeable increase in buying volume on breakout candles.
💪 Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken above previous short-term resistance (₹1655–₹1665 range) and is sustaining.
🔮 Forecast (Next 15 Days):
✅ Bullish Scenario (Probability: 75%)
If the stock sustains above ₹1670–₹1675, expect:
🎯 Target 1: ₹1700
🎯 Target 2: ₹1725
🎯 Target 3: ₹1750+
Why 75%?
Momentum is strong
Sector (Pharma) has relative strength
Volume + price action are aligned bullishly
❌ Bearish Scenario (Probability: 25%)
If GLENMARK fails to hold ₹1670 and breaks below ₹1650:
🔻 Support 1: ₹1640
🔻 Support 2: ₹1610
🔻 Support 3: ₹1580
Downside risk seems limited unless a sharp broader-market correction hits.
📌 Trading Plan:
🚀 Buy-on-Dip: Ideal entry on retest of ₹1655–₹1660 zone with SL below ₹1640.
🔍 Momentum Entry: Breakout above ₹1680 with volume = momentum continuation play.
🛑 Exit if: Price closes below ₹1640 on volume — would signal weakness.
💬 Community View:
GLENMARK is looking technically strong, with solid volume and structure. Is this a launchpad to ₹1750+, or will it see resistance above ₹1700? Share your thoughts below 👇
IDEAFORGE: Reversal in Play or Just a Bounce? - Key LevelsIDEAFORGE recently showed a sharp recovery after a strong downtrend, rebounding from ₹552 to ₹590+ in one session on heavy volume. This V-shaped recovery signals potential short covering or accumulation.
🔍 Key Observations:
Consolidation was seen around ₹588–₹590 before the breakdown.
Sharp drop to ₹552 followed by a high-volume bounce.
Price is now stabilizing around previous support zones.
🔮 Forecast (Next 15 Days):
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above ₹586–₹588 and breaks above ₹595–₹600 with volume, we may see:
🎯 Target 1: ₹610
🎯 Target 2: ₹625
🎯 Target 3: ₹640+
❌ Bearish Scenario:
Break below ₹584 could invalidate the bounce:
🔻 Support 1: ₹570
🔻 Support 2: ₹552
🔻 Support 3: ₹540
📌 Trading Plan:
Watch for a breakout above ₹595 with volume confirmation. RSI crossing above 60 on 15-min/1H charts can further confirm bullish momentum.
💬 What do you think? Is this a reversal in the making or just a temporary bounce? Share your views below!
NAVIN FLUORINE | Bullish Momentum Building–Breakout Above ₹4560Stock: NAVIN FLUORINE INT. LTD. (NSE)
Timeframe: 5-min | Observation Window: Last 3 trading sessions
Status: Consolidation post strong rally
🔍 Technical Analysis:
NAVIN FLUORINE witnessed a strong up-move from ₹4,380 to ₹4,580 on June 12 with volume confirmation. Since then, the stock has been in a tight range between ₹4,500 – ₹4,560, indicating healthy consolidation after a breakout.
This setup often precedes the next leg of the trend.
📈 What I'm Watching:
✅ Support Zone: ₹4,470 – ₹4,500
✅ Resistance/Breakout Level: ₹4,560
✅ Target Zones post breakout: ₹4,600 → ₹4,650 → ₹4,720
✅ RSI holding firm (estimated above 50)
✅ Strong demand visible on dips
🛠 Trading Plan:
Bullish Entry: On breakout above ₹4,560 with volume
Stop Loss: Below ₹4,470
Swing Target: ₹4,650–₹4,720 (Short-Term)
⚠️ A breakdown below ₹4,470 may shift the bias short-term bearish, with downside toward ₹4,400–₹4,380.
💬 Your Thoughts?
Will NAVIN FLUORINE give a breakout or fakeout?
Let me know your views 👇
🔔 Follow for more swing trade ideas & volume-based setups.
BSE - Study for the next 15 daysBased on the 5-minute candlestick chart of BSE Ltd (NSE) shared, here is a detailed breakdown of recent price movement and what it might suggest for the next 15 days (mid to end-June 2025 outlook):
🔍 Observations from the Chart (Recent Movement)
1. Sharp Decline
After a relatively sideways movement early on, a sharp decline began around mid-day on June 10. The drop accelerated through June 11 and 12, indicating strong selling pressure.
From a high near ₹3,030–3,040, it fell rapidly to a low around ₹2,654 by June 13, marking an approx. 12–13% correction.
2. Volume Spike
There were noticeable spikes in volume (seen via large red and green bars) particularly during the sharp falls and partial recovery.
High volume on the fall typically indicates distribution (selling by strong hands).
3. Early Signs of Stabilization
On June 13, the price bounced back to ₹2,724, suggesting that buyers may be stepping in.
The support level around ₹2,650 seems to be holding for now.
📈 Technical Analysis Outlook (Next 15 Days)
✅ Positive Scenario (Bullish Reversal)
If the bounce continues:
Immediate resistance levels: ₹2,750 → ₹2,780 → ₹2,840
If price sustains above ₹2,840, we can expect a rally toward ₹2,920–₹2,960.
Look for volume confirmation and a higher low, indicating accumulation.
❌ Negative Scenario (Continued Weakness)
If price fails to sustain the bounce and breaks below ₹2,650:
Next support zone: ₹2,600 → ₹2,550
Breach of ₹2,550 could lead to panic selling and a test of ₹2,400.
🔮 Forecast for the Next 15 Days (Probability-Based)
Sideways to mild recovery - (₹2,700–₹2,850 range) Probability - 50%
Likely as stock consolidates after steep fall
Strong bounce back - (above ₹2,850) Probability - 30%
Needs volume + reversal candles
Further downside (below ₹2,650) Probability - 20%
Watch for breach of support with volume
📌 What You Should Watch For
Price closing above ₹2,780 with volume = signs of strength
Failure to hold ₹2,650 = risk of deeper correction
MACD/RSI divergence, if available, could add clues (not visible in current chart)
Shipping Corporation of India - Value Buying and Bullish trendShipping Corporation of India had retraced almost 61.8 % from highs near the lows, after a period of accumulation where there were continous responsive buyers at lows. The price started moving up.
Volumes : Volumes can be confirmed with the circles plotted on chart.
Retest : The retest of price happened highlighted by the rectangle.
Initiative Buyer : we can see big volumes coming after the retest happened and price started moving above POC - Point of control of current range. This suggest a strong support zone below even if the price retraces a bit eventual trend is up.
From the previous point of controls and value area highs we can set targets for upcoming upmoves :
Targets :
1)210
2)235
3)290
4)350
There should be strong support around Point of control and value area low of current range, in case of SL hunting of weak hands.
Still shows a relatively low risk opportunity with potential for high reward.
PS : Post is educational in nature and doesn't constitute any financial or buy sell advice. Do your own research. The publication is made with the intention to explain the concepts of RSI Hybrid Profile.
Indicator
PE Writing vs CE Writing – Core Difference Explained!Hello Traders!
When it comes to Option Writing , many beginners jump into selling Calls (CE) and Puts (PE) without understanding the key differences. But PE Writing and CE Writing are not just two sides of the same coin — each comes with its own psychology, risk profile, and best-use scenario. Let’s break it down so you can write options like a pro.
What is CE Writing (Call Writing)?
Definition: Selling a Call Option (CE) means you're betting that the market will not go above a certain level by expiry.
Bias: It’s a bearish to neutral strategy. You profit if the market falls or stays flat.
Common Use Case: Ideal when the market is at resistance or when data shows strong supply zones or heavy CE OI buildup.
Risk Profile: Unlimited loss if market rallies sharply — hence better when combined with hedging.
What is PE Writing (Put Writing)?
Definition: Selling a Put Option (PE) means you're betting that the market will not go below a certain level.
Bias: It’s a bullish to neutral strategy. You profit if the market rises or remains sideways above the strike.
Common Use Case: Works best when market is near support or when strong Put OI build-up suggests buyers are defending levels.
Risk Profile: Unlimited loss if market crashes — especially dangerous during high-volatility or news-driven sessions.
PE Writing vs CE Writing – Key Differences
Sentiment: PE writing is bullish-biased, CE writing is bearish-biased.
Market Structure: PE writers want market to stay above their strike, CE writers want market to stay below theirs.
Risk Exposure: Both carry unlimited loss potential — proper SL and hedging are essential.
Expiry Day Behavior: CE premiums fall faster in strong downtrends; PE premiums decay faster in rising markets.
Rahul’s Tip
Don’t blindly sell PE or CE just because premiums are high. Use data like OI shifts, support/resistance, VIX, and structure to choose the right side.
Conclusion
Both PE Writing and CE Writing are powerful tools — if you know when and how to use them. Writing without context is gambling; writing with structure is strategy. Always trade with risk defined, bias clear, and exit planned.
Do you prefer PE or CE writing? Let me know your favorite setup in the comments!
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In this example, I want to screen stocks with the following condition.
Market India
Change % greater than 4%
Turnover greater than 10 Cr. (to filter only heavy stocks)
I have excluded Market Cap filter in the above screener. However, I usually add it and the reason is that if the stock is still showing momentum at EOD, I will take delivery. Instead of attempting to find opportunities every day, if a good trade is captured, then hold it as long as momentum persists.
Follow the video to see how I have done it.
I usually take entries only on the 5 minutes chart. However, my signal comes from HTF.
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All the best with your trades.
PriceCatch
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What is Option Writing? Why 90% Traders Get It Wrong!Hello Traders!
Today, let’s break down one of the most misunderstood strategies in the options market — Option Writing . While it’s known for generating consistent income, the truth is that most retail traders get it wrong . Why? Because they don’t respect the risk, structure, and psychology behind it. Let’s understand what option writing really is — and how to do it the right way.
What is Option Writing?
Option Writing = Selling Options: You sell a Call or Put and receive a premium. If the option expires worthless, you keep the entire premium as profit.
Time Decay Advantage: Option writers benefit from Theta — the value of the option decays with time.
Range-Bound Bias: Works best in sideways or non-trending markets, especially on expiry days or low-volatility phases.
Why 90% of Traders Get It Wrong
No Risk Management: Most sellers don’t hedge or define SL. One sharp move can wipe out weeks of profits.
Overleveraging: Selling options without understanding margin, exposure, and volatility leads to quick blowups.
No Data-Based Strategy: Randomly selling options without understanding OI, IV, VIX, or market structure is a recipe for disaster.
Wrong Market Conditions: Option writing during trending or breakout phases leads to big losses — especially for naked writers.
Rahul’s Tip
Sell options only when the odds are in your favor — backed by data, structure, and proper hedging. And always treat this like a business, not a shortcut to income.
Conclusion
Option writing is a powerful income strategy, but only when done with the right mindset and discipline. Most traders lose because they sell with greed and no system. If you want to win, study the Greeks, respect the risk, and manage your capital wisely.
Are you an option writer or planning to learn? Drop your experience in the comments! Let's build this together.
VIMTALABS price action**VIMTALABS is currently trading around ₹940–950, down from recent highs.** The company has shown strong growth (market cap up 97% in a year), with robust profits and revenue. It recently announced a 1:1 bonus issue effective June 13, 2025. Financially healthy, but the stock is considered high risk and is more volatile than the market. Promoter holding is steady at 36.7%. Short-term, the price is correcting after a big rally, but long-term fundamentals remain strong.
AUBANK back to All Time High.AUBANK is a few points away from the price where it started.
The trading strategy is to wait for the resistance range 250-246.90 for a retest of the all-time high and upper targets of 261.50 to 268 as new highs.
Upon rejection or confirmation of rejection of this resistance level, prices will fall to 231 and 221, respectively, as T1 and T2.